Cermati Invest Weekly Update 5 Agustus 2024
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IHSG | 0.27% | 7,308.12 |
| LQ45 | -0.11% | 919.37 |
| IDX30 | -0.21% | 458.54 |
| FTSE Indonesia | -0.28% | 3,550.90 |
| MSCI Indonesia | -0.10% | 7,234.96 |
| USD/IDR | -0.78% | 16,157.80 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | 2.39% | 2,442.68 |
| Crude Oil WTI | -3.91% | 74.14 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -0.63% | 3,917 |
| Natural Gas | -1.40% | 1.98 |
| Newcastle Coal | 6.82% | 144.00 |
| Nickel | 3.62% | 16,366 |
| Tin | 2.09% | 30,188 |
| Copper | -0.19% | 9,094 |
| Aluminium | -1.22% | 2,261 |
| US Soybeans | -2.11% | 1,020.00 |
| Silver | 2.95% | 28.69 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -2.10% | 39,737.26 |
| S&P 500 | -2.06% | 5,346.56 |
| FTSE 100 | -1.34% | 8,174.71 |
| DAX | -4.11% | 17,661.22 |
| Nikkei 225 | -4.65% | 35,917.50 |
| Hang Seng | -0.45% | 16,945.51 |
| Shanghai | 0.50% | 2,905.34 |
| KOSPI | -2.04% | 2,676.19 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
Ulasan Pasar
IHSG & Saham Pekan Ini
IHSG, beberapa pekan terakhir sideways dan membentuk huruf “W” yang artinya pergerakan IHSG berada dalam pola “ double bottom” yang bergerak dalam area 7196.754 (Support1) dan 7355.299 (Resistance1). Bila akhirnya pekan lalu IHSG tutup di sekitar resistance, maka pekan ini IHSG akan kembali terkoreksi menuju Support1, karena di sana ada gap up, batas bawah selanjutnya 6968.136 (Support2). Bila ada gap, biasanya harga akan kembali untuk menutupnya suatu hari nanti.
Big picture IHSG sejak 2022, berada di antara 6698.848 (Support3, low price 19 Juni 2024) sampai 7454.448 (Resistance2, all time high IHSG). Kuartal III ini, IHSG masih aman selama di atas 7105.776 (quarterly pivot).
SAHAM, bila IHSG akan terkoreksi, biasanya dipicu dari sektor keuangan karena mayoritas indeks konstituen berisi perusahaan bank besar buku 4. Pekan lalu indeks terbaiknya adalah Pefindo PrimeBank10, FTSE Indonesia, MSCI Indonesia, Bisnis27, Sri-Kehati, IDX30 dan LQ45 yang performanya mengungguli IHSG.
Dari sisi sektoral, yang terbaik masih dari sektor Industry, Transportasi, Energy, Cyclicals, dan Finance.
Pergerakan Rupiah
Pekan lalu rupiah menguat dalam kisaran 16330 — 16100 per 1 dolar Amerika. Pekan ini rupiah lanjut menguat ke dalam area 16190 — 15875 per 1 dolar Amerika.
Emas
Pekan lalu emas dunia naik signifikan dari 2369 US dollar ke 2477 US dollar nyaris mencatatkan all time high baru. Hal ini dipicu oleh 2 data ekonomi yang diumumkan oleh Amerika Serikat yaitu suku bunga Amerika (The Fed) pada hari Kamis dini hari lalu yang hasilnya tetap 5.5% dan pada akhir pekan lalu NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) turun menjadi 114 ribu sehingga tingkat pengangguran naik menjadi 4.3%. Pekan ini emas dunia bergerak dalam area 2353—2507 US dollar per troy ounce.
Emas dalam negeri juga bergerak sama, bila pekan lalu sempat mencatatkan all time high baru di Rp1.292.070, maka pekan ini emas bergerak dalam range harga Rp1.237.000 — Rp 1.348.380.
Reksa Dana & Surat Berharga
Dengan kecenderungan rupiah menguat pekan ini dan suku bunga yang stabil, seharusnya reksa dana campuran, pendapatan tetap, dan saham masih menjadi primadona bulan Agustus 2024 ini.
Jadi, ambil peluang beli reksa dana ketika pasar terkoreksi wajar dan mencapai supportnya pekan ini.
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia Mulai Lesu Dampak Suku Bunga Tinggi
Beragam sentimen pasar baik dari dalam dan luar negeri mempengaruhi performa pasar investasi pada pekan lalu.
Dari dalam negeri, data ekonomi yang dirilis kemarin cenderung mengecewakan. Pertama yakni data aktivitas manufaktur terbaru dan menjadi kontraksi pertama sejak Agustus 2021 atau hampir tiga tahun terakhir. Data Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) yang dirilis S&P Global kemarin menunjukkan manufaktur Indonesia jatuh dan terkontraksi ke 49,3 pada Juli 2024. PMI Manufaktur Indonesia terus memburuk dan turun selama empat bulan terakhir. PMI anjlok dari 54,2 pada Maret 2024 menjadi 49,3 pada Juli 2024. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) atau Indeks Manajer Pembelian adalah indikator ekonomi yang mengukur arah perkembangan tren ekonomi pada sektor manufaktur dan jasa, angka indeks di atas 50 berarti sektor bisnis mengalami ekspansi, di bawah 50 berarti mengalami kontraksi. Tak hanya itu saja, data Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Indonesia pada periode Juli 2024 kembali mengalami deflasi dan menjadi ketiga kalinya secara beruntun sepanjang tahun ini. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) melaporkan IHK Indonesia pada bulan lalu mengalami deflasi sebesar 0.18% secara bulanan (month-to-month/mtm), dari sebelumnya yang juga mengalami deflasi sebesar 0.08% pada Juni lalu dan 0.03% pada Mei. Angka tersebut menunjukkan menurunya tingkat konsumsi masyarakat dalam negeri.
Dari luar negeri, bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) atau The Federal Reserve (The Fed) memutuskan untuk kembali menahan suku bunga acuannya di level 5.25-5.50%, sesuai dengan prediksi pasar sebelumnya. Namun, The Fed memberi sinyal kuat akan memangkas suku bunga pada pertemuan September mendatang. Direktur Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat, Jerome Powell, mengatakan kondisi ekonomi AS sudah berbeda jauh dengan setahun yang lalu. Inflasi kini sudah melandai sementara tingkat pengangguran sudah meningkat. Klaim tunjangan pengangguran juga menunjukkan warga AS tetap menganggur lebih lama. Dengan demikian, harapan menurunya tingkat suku bunga AS dapat membawa dampak positif ke dalam negeri, karena suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia juga berpotensi untuk turun, sehingga dapat meningkatkan gairah konsumsi dari masyarakat dan membaiknya perputaran ekonomi.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD (Daily Performance) since 2024 (YtD)
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1540.21 | 0.82% | 1.73% | 2.71% | 3.07% | 4.73% | 14.00% | 54.02% | 13 Apr 2018 | 3.60 B |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang III | 1718.26 | 0.49% | 1.40% | 2.63% | 3.06% | 4.83% | 11.60% | 71.83% | 16 Feb 2010 | 597.90 B |
| Insight Money Syariah | 1592.53 | 0.49% | 1.50% | 2.83% | 3.30% | 5.52% | 15.67% | 59.25% | 30 Sep 2015 | 96.53 B |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1670.92 | 0.47% | 1.37% | 2.69% | 3.20% | 5.27% | 14.23% | 67.09% | 8 Jun 2015 | 226.85 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1470.88 | 0.42% | 1.31% | 2.64% | 3.10% | 5.23% | 13.32% | 47.09% | 23 Dec 2016 | 858.77 B |
| TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A | 1855.12 | 0.42% | 1.28% | 2.48% | 2.90% | 4.78% | 12.93% | 85.51% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.30 T |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1395.25 | 0.41% | 1.28% | 2.57% | 3.02% | 4.96% | 12.95% | 39.53% | 30 Dec 2016 | 885.03 B |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1302.52 | 0.39% | 1.28% | 2.65% | 3.14% | 5.27% | 12.31% | 30.25% | 19 Jul 2018 | 73.34 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Bond | 1782.48 | 1.67% | 2.16% | 1.29% | 1.75% | 3.38% | 8.59% | 78.25% | 2 Jan 2019 | 25.24 B |
| HPAM Government Bond | 1570.40 | 1.57% | 1.96% | 0.87% | 1.48% | 2.62% | 11.86% | 57.04% | 18 May 2016 | 20.74 B |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 2550.23 | 1.55% | 2.26% | 0.49% | 1.40% | 2.35% | 11.00% | 155.02% | 8 Dec 2011 | 100.59 B |
| Eastspring IDR Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1714.20 | 1.34% | 1.94% | 0.74% | 1.29% | 1.80% | 10.30% | 71.42% | 16 Mar 2015 | 150.37 B |
| Principal Total Return Bond Fund | 2575.07 | 1.31% | 1.77% | 0.98% | 1.45% | 0.80% | -3.58% | 157.51% | 21 Aug 2008 | 20.19 B |
| BRI Brawijaya Abadi Pendapatan Tetap | 1346.29 | 1.12% | 1.99% | 0.63% | 1.13% | 1.29% | 10.95% | 34.63% | 25 Feb 2019 | 8.34 B |
| UOBAM Inovasi Obligasi Nasional | 1027.91 | 1.00% | 2.77% | 2.51% | 3.80% | 8.97% | 3.14% | 2.79% | 12 Jan 2021 | 116.87 B |
| TRIM Dana Tetap 2 | 3127.01 | 0.71% | 1.88% | 2.74% | 3.15% | 4.86% | 13.98% | 212.70% | 13 May 2008 | 621.43 B |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4887.76 | 0.54% | 1.69% | 3.24% | 3.77% | 6.10% | 22.05% | 388.78% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.29 T |
| Insight Renewable Energy Fund | 2214.85 | 0.53% | 1.67% | 3.25% | 3.85% | 7.00% | 18.78% | 121.49% | 22 Jun 2011 | 364.28 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3084.50 | 3.52% | 1.74% | 0.23% | 1.29% | -1.79% | 6.21% | 208.45% | 27 Dec 2006 | 17.02 B |
| HPAM Flexi Plus | 1885.32 | 2.88% | 6.03% | 9.91% | 7.74% | 23.14% | 12.06% | 88.53% | 2 Mar 2011 | 44.36 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1445.54 | 2.82% | 4.93% | 7.19% | 6.78% | 5.68% | 42.85% | 44.55% | 25 Sep 2017 | 64.46 B |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9292.80 | 2.18% | 2.43% | -1.64% | -1.04% | -0.67% | 14.05% | 829.28% | 3 Jun 2002 | 169.54 B |
| Danakita Investasi Fleksibel | 1466.21 | 1.80% | 2.26% | 1.00% | 1.74% | 3.78% | 12.44% | 46.62% | 8 Jun 2017 | 10.13 B |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3303.51 | 1.73% | 5.01% | 6.02% | 6.99% | 4.90% | -6.48% | 230.35% | 22 Apr 2008 | 80.61 B |
| SAM Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1901.24 | -0.38% | 3.10% | 2.93% | 3.80% | 2.87% | 27.12% | 90.12% | 21 Dec 2017 | 29.26 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2221.36 | 7.68% | 5.61% | -5.45% | -5.13% | -16.13% | 11.50% | 122.14% | 5 Sep 2018 | 17.35 B |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 17208.63 | 3.97% | 1.91% | -4.46% | -3.29% | -7.01% | 19.48% | 1620.86% | 9 Jul 1999 | 77.15 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3172.66 | 3.25% | 2.89% | -2.53% | -2.35% | -2.02% | 13.40% | 217.27% | 19 Oct 2006 | 378.60 B |
| HPAM Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1993.93 | 2.92% | 10.47% | 20.25% | 21.30% | 49.12% | 97.97% | 99.39% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.50 T |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 2832.20 | 2.89% | 2.91% | -3.28% | -3.35% | -9.50% | 23.41% | 183.22% | 4 Dec 2018 | 44.30 B |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2282.42 | 2.66% | 0.02% | -4.31% | -1.73% | 4.65% | 22.93% | 128.24% | 18 Oct 2011 | 978.75 B |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 63549.59 | 2.63% | 2.39% | -1.95% | -0.81% | -0.42% | 13.49% | 6254.96% | 16 Dec 1996 | 1.96 T |
| Insight Sri Kehati Likuid - I Sri Likuid | 1142.74 | 2.56% | 2.75% | -7.08% | -5.39% | -6.51% | 35.98% | 14.27% | 29 Mar 2018 | 13.84 B |
| Danakita Saham Prioritas | 1181.17 | 2.50% | 2.77% | -1.73% | -0.57% | 0.29% | 35.75% | 18.12% | 17 Oct 2018 | 10.14 B |
| UOBAM Indeks Bisnis-27 | 1391.88 | 2.50% | 2.63% | -4.12% | -3.40% | -4.16% | 30.32% | 39.19% | 15 Aug 2012 | 36.10 B |
| HPAM Ultima Ekuitas 1 | 2895.40 | 1.71% | 2.17% | 8.86% | 5.88% | 17.77% | 22.13% | 189.54% | 2 Nov 2009 | 658.57 B |
| Bahana Primavera Plus | 13146.34 | 1.11% | 2.76% | -0.07% | 0.22% | -1.38% | 6.77% | 1214.63% | 27 May 1997 | 58.74 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia USD Bond Fund | 1.0404 | 0.96% | 1.64% | 0.26% | 0.09% | 1.71% | - | 4.04% | 18 Oct 2022 | 10.42 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.9652 | 1.60% | 2.73% | 0.86% | 1.03% | 4.74% | -3.63% | -3.48% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.14 M |
| Batavia Global ESG Sharia Equity USD | 1.1268 | -2.99% | -0.48% | 0.02% | 0.95% | 4.24% | 4.75% | 12.68% | 27 Jan 2021 | 16.93 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 0.9953 | -2.50% | 2.67% | 6.39% | 4.65% | 3.12% | -27.41% | -0.47% | 28 Oct 2016 | 4.00 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.5892 | -5.72% | -5.84% | 1.03% | -2.68% | -11.74% | -48.25% | -41.08% | 15 Jun 2020 | 5.87 M |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
Surat Utang/Obligasi
| NAMA OBLIGASI | ISIN | MATA UANG | KUPON | TANGGAL JATUH TEMPO | INDIKASI HARGA BELI | INDIKASI HARGA JUAL | INDIKASI YIELD | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR0087 | IDG000015207 | IDR | 6.50% | 15-Feb-31 | 99.7 | 98.7 | 6.56% | BBB |
| FR0097 | IDG000020900 | IDR | 7.13% | 15-Jun-43 | 102 | 101 | 6.93% | BBB |
| PBS005 | IDP000001505 | IDR | 6.75% | 15-Apr-43 | 100 | 99 | 6.75% | BBB |
| INKP01CCN1 | IDA0001069C2 | IDR | 11.00% | 5-Jun-25 | 101 | 100 | 9.48% | idA+ |
| LPPI02ACN1 | IDA0001331A0 | IDR | 10.50% | 4-Jul-26 | 101 | 100 | 9.92% | idA |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 2 Agustus 2024
Event Calendar
| Monday, 05 August 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | |||
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Services PMI Final JUL | 49.4 | 53.9 | 53.9 |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Services PMI JUL | 51.2 | 51.4 | 50.6 |
| 45.83% | ID | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 | -0.83% | 3.71% | 3.40% |
| 45.83% | ID | GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 | 5.11% | 5.00% | 4.50% |
| 2:55 PM | DE | HCOB Services PMI Final JUL | 53.1 | 52.0 | 52.0 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global Services PMI Final JUL | 52.1 | 52.4 | 52.4 |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Final JUL | 54.8 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Services PMI Final JUL | 55.3 | 56.0 | 56.0 |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Services PMI JUL | 48.8 | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| Tuesday, 06 August 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:00 AM | US | Fed Daly Speech | |||
| 6:01 AM | GB | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY JUL | -0.50% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Factory Orders MoM JUN | -1.60% | 0.80% | 1.00% |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global Construction PMI JUL | 52.2 | 51.0 | 51.4 |
| 7:30 PM | US | Balance of Trade JUN | $-75.1B | $-72.9B | $ -72B |
| 7:30 PM | US | Exports JUN | $261.7B | $ 268.0B | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Imports JUN | $336.7B | $ 340B | |
| 9:10 PM | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index AUG | 44.2 | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Wednesday, 07 August 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 3:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change AUG/02 | -4.495M | ||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Balance of Trade JUN | €24.9B | €23.5B | € 24B |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Exports MoM JUN | -3.60% | ||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Industrial Production MoM JUN | -2.50% | 1.00% | 1.40% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Halifax House Price Index MoM JUL | -0.20% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Halifax House Price Index YoY JUL | 1.60% | 1.20% | |
| 9:30 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change AUG/02 | -3.436M | ||
| 9:30 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change AUG/02 | -3.665M | ||
| Thursday, 08 August 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | BoJ Summary of Opinions | |||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Current Account JUN | ¥2850B | ¥1790B | ¥ 1900B |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Balance of Trade JUL | $99.05B | $98B | $90B |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Exports YoY JUL | 8.60% | 10.40% | 7.80% |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Imports YoY JUL | -2.30% | 3.30% | 2.50% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims AUG/03 | 249K | 250K | 247K |
| Friday, 09 August 2024 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 2:00 AM | US | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
| 8:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate YoY JUL | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate MoM JUL | -0.20% | -0.20% | |
| 8:30 AM | CN | PPI YoY JUL | -0.80% | -0.90% | -0.40% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate MoM Final JUL | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate YoY Final JUL | 2.20% | 2.30% | 2.30% |
| 4:00 PM | CN | Current Account Prel Q2 | $39.2B | $ 65.0B | |
| 11:00 PM | RU | GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q2 | 5.40% | 3.10% | |
| 11:00 PM | RU | Inflation Rate MoM JUL | 0.60% | 0.70% | |
| 11:00 PM | RU | Inflation Rate YoY JUL | 8.60% | ||
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT), Marulitua.com
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
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